Labour Set to Lose Control in Wales for First Time as Plaid Cymru and Reform Surge, Exclusive Poll Reveals

• Labour pushed into third place in Wales for the first time ever
• Reform UK storms Red Wall strongholds including Sunderland and Barnsley
• Conservative Blue Wall shires in the south-east collapse
• Green Party limited to just two London boroughs despite national surge

Starmer Faces Worst Local Election Night in History

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said: “If these results come to pass, we will be looking at a major political earthquake across Britain. It could be the worst local election ever for Labour in England, a collapse for the Conservatives in their historic Blue Wall heartlands, and a brutal third place for Starmer’s party in Wales.”

He added: “One cannot overstate how seismic that result in Wales would be – it is a place that has stayed Labour even in the party’s darkest days. Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and the Greens are all contributing to this, but it is Reform that looks set to be the real story.”

Red Wall Strongholds Crumble Under Reform Pressure

Labour heartlands are at serious risk. In Sunderland, a Labour stronghold since its creation in 1974, the party is now 10 points behind Reform UK. Barnsley, held by Labour for more than 50 years, is set to flip to Reform by a margin of more than 12 points. Similar shocks are expected in Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield.

In Greater Manchester, Labour is less than one percentage point ahead of the Greens following their recent by-election success in Gorton and Denton.

Conservative Blue Wall Collapses in Southern Shires

Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative heartlands face meltdown. Reform UK is on course to seize control of Essex (including Badenoch’s own constituency), Suffolk and Norfolk. The Tories are also projected to lose East Sussex, West Sussex and Hampshire, finishing second or third behind Reform or the Liberal Democrats. In East Sussex the Conservative vote share could slump as low as 15 per cent.

With new boundaries in Surrey, the Conservatives are set to lose both East and West Surrey after previously commanding 42 per cent of the vote.

Greens Make Limited Gains Despite Surge

The Green Party is forecast to become the largest party in five English authorities, including the London boroughs of Haringey and Hackney. However, their surge is largely splitting the left-wing vote and is constrained in Wales by strong Plaid Cymru support. Greens are expected to win control of just two London boroughs.

Poll Methodology and Broader Implications

The comprehensive multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll by JL Partners is the most detailed projection yet for the May 7 elections. It covers every English council contest plus Scotland and Wales, providing a clear picture of the shifting political landscape.

These results would reignite intense speculation about Sir Keir Starmer’s future at No 10. Labour’s collapse in its traditional Welsh stronghold, combined with the loss of dozens of English councils, would mark the most devastating set of local election results in the party’s modern history.

Reform UK’s breakthrough demonstrates accelerating momentum that many commentators had dismissed. The party is drawing support from disillusioned Labour voters in the north and from Conservatives in the south and east, reshaping the political map.

What This Means for Britain

The projected results signal a fundamental fragmentation of UK politics. Labour’s century-long dominance in Wales is ending. The Red Wall and Blue Wall are both crumbling under Reform UK pressure. Traditional two-party politics is giving way to a multi-party reality where Reform is emerging as the clear winner in many areas.

As global and domestic pressures mount, these local elections could mark the beginning of a wider realignment. With voters rejecting the status quo, Reform UK’s message on immigration, cost of living and national priorities is resonating strongly.

The coming weeks will be critical. If the polls are accurate, May 7 will deliver a historic blow to Labour and the Conservatives while catapulting Reform UK and Plaid Cymru into new positions of power.

Share if you believe this spells the end of Labour dominance and the rise of real change in Britain.

This article is a factual summary of reporting by The Telegraph. Full original story available on their website. All quotes, projections and data directly attributed to the JL Partners MRP poll.