Reform Says Mahmood Is “Betraying Britain” as Settlement Climbdown Looms and Boats Return

News | By Matt, Editor

Shabana Mahmood is expected to water down her own settlement crackdown this week, letting care workers already in Britain keep the five-year route to permanent residence. It came as the boats returned to the Channel, with almost 1,000 people arriving in two days. Reform UK accused the Home Secretary of “betraying Britain”.

Zia Yusuf, Reform’s shadow home secretary, said on Saturday: “We will abolish ILR.” Nigel Farage called Friday’s scenes on the French coast “chaos in the Channel”. (BBC News; GOV.UK)

Key facts

• Ms Mahmood proposed raising the wait for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five years to 10, and to up to 15 for some lower-paid workers.
• The BBC reported on Saturday that social care workers already in the UK are now “likely to be exempt” from the longer wait. The Home Office will not comment until she reports to Parliament in the coming week.
• The Home Office had warned that settling 117,000 low-paid care workers and 79,000 dependants would cost £9.5bn over five years. The Telegraph.
• After 21 days with no crossings, 263 people arrived on 3 boats on Thursday 29 October and 671 on 9 boats on Friday 30 October.
• Arrivals in 2026 reached 21,869 by Friday, down from 36,954 over the same period of 2025, by our calculation from GOV.UK data.

The climbdown

Ms Mahmood’s plan was meant to be the toughest change to settlement in years. Under it, most migrants would wait 10 years, not five, to apply for ILR, which gives the right to stay for good and to claim benefits if eligible. Some lower-paid workers, including many in social care, faced 15 years. (BBC News)

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But the plan ran into a revolt. Angela Rayner, before she returned to the Cabinet, called it “un-British”. More than 100 Labour MPs and the unions opposed it, The Telegraph reported. The consultation drew 200,000 responses. The BBC now understands that care workers already here are likely to keep the old five-year wait. BBN reported earlier on Mahmood giving ground to Rayner and warnings that the climbdown left her job looking untenable.

The Home Office’s own figures make the case against. Officials warned that ILR for 117,000 low-paid care workers and 79,000 dependants would cost £9.5bn over five years. (The Telegraph) In June, peers warned that each migrant care worker could cost taxpayers over £100,000.

Yusuf: “betraying Britain”

Mr Yusuf posted at 17:01 on Saturday. “Labour’s Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is betraying Britain,” he wrote. “She’s watering down her Indefinite Leave to Remain reforms to exempt care workers.”

He claimed nearly 300,000 care visa holders were set to settle in the next five years, at a lifetime cost of “up to £90 billion”. He also said that when Canada gave care workers settlement, “just 15% stayed in the sector”. Those are his figures; the Home Office has not published a cost for the revised plan. His pledge: “We will abolish ILR.”

Labour’s Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is betraying Britain.

She’s watering down her Indefinite Leave to Remain reforms to exempt care workers.

Nearly 300,000 care visa holders are set to settle in the next five years, with full access to welfare, social housing and public…

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) October 31, 2026

An hour and a half later he went further. He said a start-up founder could wait up to 10 years under the new rules, but a care worker only five. He quoted the Migration Observatory calling the care visa “the Wild West”. He said half of the care visas issued in 2023 came from sponsors that have since lost their licences, and that more than 850 sponsor licences had been revoked.

Labour's new watered-down settlement rules mean a start-up founder could wait up to 10 years for permanent residency.

But someone on a care worker visa waits 5.

This is the visa route the Migration Observatory called "the Wild West":

Where HALF the care visas in 2023 came from…

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) October 31, 2026

The boats are back

While the settlement row raged, the Channel came alive again. Thursday’s 263 arrivals ended a 21-day pause, the longest of the year, amid high seas and wind. Friday brought 671 more, in nine boats. Several children were among those brought ashore at Dover. (The Independent; GOV.UK)

At Hardelot, on the French coast, Press Association footage on Friday showed a man in waist-deep water moving towards a boat holding a knife. A man on board tried to hit him with a boot. The man appeared to drop the knife into the sea, then boarded the UK-bound boat. A call of “I will kill you” was heard as French rescue boats waited nearby. (The Independent)

Mr Farage posted the footage within hours. “Chaos in the Channel today. Hundreds of migrants crossing,” he wrote. “A man boarded a boat in Hardelot wielding a knife… He will be in Britain soon.” He asked whether the Prime Minister cared.

BREAKING

Chaos in the Channel today. Hundreds of migrants crossing.

A lifeboat in Dungeness had 80 illegal migrants on board.

A man boarded a boat in Hardelot wielding a knife, screaming, "I will kill you." He will be in Britain soon.

Does @AndyBurnham care? pic.twitter.com/wnn4AaBD74

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) October 30, 2026

For more on the restart, see crossings resume and our report on the smugglers’ boat in Belgium.

What the Government says

The Government says crossings are down significantly this year, with the lowest summer arrivals since 2020. GOV.UK figures show 21,869 arrivals in 2026 up to Friday, against 36,954 over the same dates last year. The Conservatives’ Chris Philp said Labour was “too weak to stop the boats”. (The Independent) For the long-run numbers, see small boat crossings explained and net migration explained.

Our view

This section is opinion.

This was supposed to be Labour’s tough week. Instead, the Home Secretary looks set to back down to her own backbenchers, while the boats start up again the moment the weather turns.

Ms Mahmood knew the numbers. Her own department told her the bill would run into billions. Her own plan said ten years. If she now carves out the largest group, the reform is a reform in name only. Mr Yusuf’s figures are his own and will be disputed, but his central point is hard to argue with. Settlement is for life, and the cost of getting it wrong is paid by taxpayers for decades.

Labour points to falling crossings. A lower number than last year’s record is not control. Control is when nobody gets into a dinghy on a French beach, and on Friday hundreds did.

FAQ

Has Mahmood confirmed the care worker exemption?

No. The BBC reported it is likely. The Home Office says final decisions will be set out to Parliament in the coming week.

What is indefinite leave to remain?

Permanent residence. It gives the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as you like, and to apply for benefits if eligible.

Sources

• BBC News, 31 October 2026: Mahmood expected to announce changes to rules around indefinite leave to remain
• The Telegraph, 22 October 2026: Mahmood could soften migration crackdown for care workers
• The Independent, 31 October 2026: Nearly 1,000 migrants cross Channel in two days
• GOV.UK: Small boat arrivals, last 7 days (updated 31 October 2026)
• Posts on X by Zia Yusuf and Nigel Farage, 30–31 October 2026 (embedded above)
• Main image: Shabana Mahmood, official cabinet portrait, September 2025. Photo: Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street, OGL v3.0, via Wikimedia Commons