Healey Says Labour Is ‘Doing a Good Job on Migration’. His Own Forecaster Sees It Nearly Doubling to 230,000

News | By Matt, Editor

Labour’s Chancellor says the Government is doing “a good job on migration”. His own Treasury’s forecaster says net migration will nearly double. John Healey told GB News on Budget day: “No, I’m confident we’re doing a good job on migration.” (GB News, 29 October 2026)

The Office for Budget Responsibility expects net migration to fall to 120,000 in the year to mid-2026, then rise to 230,000 a year by mid-2031. That averages 182,000 a year, about 910,000 over five years. In the same interview Healey said a “small handful of army sites” would take asylum seekers as hotels close, backed by £150 million in his Budget. (OBR, October 2026; HM Treasury)

Key facts

• The forecast: net migration of 120,000 in the year to mid-2026, rising to 230,000 by mid-2031. (OBR)
• Five years: an average of 182,000 a year from mid-2026 to mid-2031, about 910,000 in total. (OBR)
• Today: 171,000 in 2025, down from 331,000 in 2024 and a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. (ONS, provisional)
• The money: £150 million in 2027-28 “to fund additional large sites to accommodate asylum seekers”. (Budget 2026)
• The promise: “Labour will reduce net migration.” (Labour manifesto, 2024)

What Healey said

Challenged that he was “losing control of migration” in his “desperation to grow the economy”, Healey replied: “No, on the contrary, we’ve brought net migration down to 170,000.” He said the figure had been 900,000 when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. (GB News)

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He added: “We’ve seen small boat crossings now at a six-year low… We’re removing more people now than we have for ten years, who’ve got no right to be here. And that’s why you’ve seen the asylum bill down by £1 billion under this government.” (GB News)

What his forecaster says

The OBR, which produces the official forecasts for the Treasury, says net migration will “rise gradually to 230,000 by the year to mid-2031”, in line with the ONS’s main population projection. It judges that to be a reasonable central assumption based on “current government policy”. (OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook)

In fairness, the OBR cut its forecast by about 70,000 a year since March. It says the rise “largely reflects” fewer British and EU nationals leaving each year, and the recent fall reflects “visa restrictions introduced since 2023”. (OBR)

The 900,000 claim

Healey’s headline figure is right: the ONS puts net migration at 171,000 in 2025. But the peak he blamed on Johnson was 944,000 in the year to March 2023. That year began under Johnson, who left office in September 2022, and ended under Rishi Sunak. (ONS)

Boats, removals and the asylum bill

The Home Office told MPs on 21 October that just under 21,000 people had crossed the Channel this year, against nearly 37,000 at the same point last year, the lowest since 2020. The record was 45,755 in 2022. (Home Affairs Committee; our explainer) Update: on 29 October Labour also opened two new refugee sponsorship routes, with first arrivals due in autumn 2027.

Official statistics show more than 40,000 returns in the year to June 2026. Voluntary returns were the highest in over ten years. Enforced returns rose 7% to 9,669. (Home Office) On the £1 billion, the Home Office says asylum accommodation costs have fallen by “almost £1 billion” since the 2024 election. Total asylum spending was £4.36 billion in 2025-26, down 8%. (GOV.UK; The Independent)

Army sites instead of hotels

There were 16,021 asylum seekers in 160 hotels at the end of June, down from a peak of 56,018 in September 2023. (The Guardian) Former military sites at Bicester, Barnham and Linton-on-Ouse are being considered for about 3,750 people. Wethersfield and Crowborough are already in use. No final decisions have been made. (Written statement, 29 June 2026)

Healey said his own constituency’s asylum hotel is now “a regular hotel” again. “This is what communities want,” he said. (GB News) Villagers near the bases disagree, as our reports on Barnham and Linton-on-Ouse show.

Healey quit as Defence Secretary on 11 June, saying the Treasury was “unwilling” to fund defence, and became Chancellor on 20 July. (BBC News; GOV.UK) More in our Budget report.

Reform’s line

As of Thursday morning, Reform UK had not responded to Healey’s migration remarks. Reform-run Suffolk County Council has backed calls for a county-wide referendum on housing asylum seekers at RAF Barnham. (BBC News)

Our view

This section is opinion.

Judge the Government on its forecasts, not its slogans. The fall in net migration is real, and it started before Labour took office. On Labour’s own policies, its own forecaster sees net migration climbing back up every year to 2031, with nearly a million more people arriving than leaving. Meanwhile the asylum hotels are being swapped for army bases next to villages that say nobody listened.

That is not “a good job”. Voters were promised Labour “will reduce net migration”. They deserve a straight answer from the Chancellor: will it be lower at the next election than it is today, yes or no?

FAQ

Is net migration rising now?

No. It fell to 171,000 in 2025, and the OBR expects 120,000 in the year to mid-2026 before it rises to 230,000 by mid-2031. (ONS; OBR)

Was it 900,000 under Boris Johnson?

The ONS peak was 944,000 in the year to March 2023, a year split between Johnson and Sunak. (ONS)

Sources

• GB News, 29 October 2026: John Healey insists Labour is doing a good job on migration
• OBR, October 2026: Economic and fiscal outlook; HM Treasury: Budget 2026
• ONS: Long-term international migration, year ending December 2025 (provisional)
• Home Office: How many people are returned from the UK?; Thirteen asylum hotels exited, 12 August 2026
• Home Affairs Committee: Oral evidence, 21 October 2026; UK Parliament: Written statement HCWS155
• The Guardian: Number of asylum seekers living in hotels halves in a year; The Independent: Asylum spending
• BBC News: Healey quits as defence secretary; Reform calls for referendum over migrant housing; GOV.UK: John Healey
• Labour Party, 2024: Manifesto: Kickstart economic growth; GB News: £150 million for large asylum sites
• Main image: Chancellor John Healey speaking to GB News after his first Budget. Screengrab: GB News interview, 28 Oct 2026.