The Triple Lock and State Pension Age Explained

By Matt, Editor

The triple lock is the promise that the State Pension rises every April by whichever is highest of average earnings growth, price inflation (CPI) or 2.5%. It has applied since 2011. Andy Burnham has now said he will keep it only until April 2030 and then replace it with a less generous formula, while the State Pension age is already rising from 66 to 67. This guide sets out what the triple lock is, what the pension is worth, what Labour has announced and where the pension age is heading.

What is the triple lock?

The triple lock is the rule used to decide how much the State Pension goes up each April. The government compares three measures and uses the highest:

• Earnings: growth in average weekly earnings, including bonuses, over May to July of the previous year.
• Prices: CPI inflation in the September of the previous year.
• A floor of 2.5%.

The coalition government of David Cameron and Nick Clegg introduced the triple lock in 2010, and it was first applied in April 2011. It covers both the new State Pension, paid to people who reached State Pension age on or after 6 April 2016, and the older basic State Pension.

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Strictly speaking, the triple lock is a political commitment rather than a law. Legislation requires the basic and new State Pensions to rise at least in line with earnings. Governments of both main parties have chosen to go further. The guarantee has been bent only once before: the earnings leg was suspended for April 2022, when pandemic distortions pushed measured wage growth to around 8%.

How much is the State Pension in 2026–27?

In April 2026 the State Pension rose by 4.8%, in line with earnings growth. The DWP says more than 12 million pensioners benefited. The expected rise for April 2027 is 3.9%, which is the May to July earnings figure published in September 2026. September CPI inflation was 3.5%, so earnings is again the highest of the three measures.

Rate	2025–26	2026–27	2027–28 (expected)
Full new State Pension (weekly)	£230.25	£241.30	about £250.70
Full new State Pension (yearly)	£11,973	£12,547.60	about £13,036
Full basic State Pension (weekly)	£176.45	£184.90	about £192.10
Increase applied	4.1% (earnings)	4.8% (earnings)	3.9% (earnings, expected)

The expected 2027–28 full new State Pension of about £13,036 a year would be above the £12,570 personal allowance. That means some pensioners with no other income would be pulled into income tax. Pensions minister Torsten Bell has said that pensioners who only just exceed the personal allowance will not pay small amounts of tax in this Parliament, in line with a commitment made at the 2025 Budget. At the Budget on 28 October 2026, John Healey confirmed a Pension Tax Allowance from April 2027 for three tax years: pensioners whose total income is no more than the full new State Pension will pay no income tax, with the allowance withdrawn at £1 for every £3 of income above that level (source: HMRC). See our Budget 2026 explainer.

What has Andy Burnham announced on the triple lock?

In his first conference speech as Prime Minister, on 29 September 2026, Andy Burnham said the triple lock would remain until April 2030. After that it would be replaced by a new formula. He said the change would help fund a national care service (BBC News). Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden told MPs on 13 October that from April 2030 the State Pension would rise by “the highest of inflation, 2.5% or what is required to maintain its record high level against average earnings”. The DWP’s factsheet describes the third leg as the amount needed to return or maintain the value of the State Pension relative to earnings.

Ministers insist this still protects pensioners. Their own figures show where the money comes from. The DWP’s State Pension uprating analysis estimates savings of £15bn a year by 2039–40 and £50bn a year by 2049–50 in cash terms (£11bn and £30bn in 2025–26 prices). Those savings exist only because pensions would rise more slowly than under the triple lock. The same analysis projects that relative pensioner poverty after housing costs would still fall, from about 14% to about 8% by 2049–50.

Independent analysts are less reassuring. Modelling reported by The Independent suggested the full State Pension could be about £5,400 a year lower in 20 years’ time than under the triple lock (£25,029 against £31,571). Pension consultants Hymans Robertson put the loss at about £1,600 a year by 2050. The Institute for Fiscal Studies called the new formula a much improved policy but said the savings would be small and uncertain at first, and not enough to fund universal social care in the next Parliament. We covered the row in Labour’s triple lock plan for pensioners.

What is the State Pension age and when will it rise?

The State Pension age is the earliest age at which you can claim the State Pension. It is 66 at present and is rising to 67 for people reaching that age between April 2026 and April 2028, under the Pensions Act 2014. The Pensions Act 2007 then raises it to 68 between 2044 and 2046, affecting people born on or after 6 April 1977. You can check your own date with the government’s State Pension age calculator.

A third statutory review of the pension age was launched in July 2025 and is due to report by the end of March 2029. It will draw on an independent report by Dr Suzy Morrissey, which had not been published as of October 2026, and on life-expectancy analysis by the Government Actuary’s Department. The government has committed to giving at least ten years’ notice of any change, so bringing 68 forward to 2037 would need to be confirmed by about 2027.

That timetable is already disputed. Reports based on the OBR’s July 2026 long-term projections said they assume the pension age reaches 68 in 2037–39. But the Treasury told consumer group Which? that claims of an earlier rise were “untrue” and that “the law remains to increase the state pension age to 68 in 2044”. Some reports have put the cost of not bringing the rise forward at about £6bn a year. We reported on Andy Burnham and the pension age in detail.

Raising the age has real costs. The IFS found that absolute income poverty among 65-year-olds rose from 10% to 24% after the pension age went from 65 to 66. The charity Independent Age warns that people in poor health or with caring responsibilities cannot always work longer.

How many National Insurance years do you need?

You need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions or credits to receive the full new State Pension, and at least 10 years to receive anything. People with gaps can sometimes buy voluntary contributions. Details are on GOV.UK.

Where do the parties stand on the triple lock?

• Labour will keep the triple lock until April 2030 and then switch to the new formula announced by Andy Burnham.
• Reform UK has pledged to keep it. Nigel Farage said on 29 September that “Reform UK will always protect our pensioners and maintain the triple lock” and called for a general election. Reform UK Shadow Chancellor Robert Jenrick said: “It’s official: Andy Burnham wants to cut your pension. It’s just mean.” Reform’s wider programme is set out in our Reform UK policies explainer.
• The Conservatives: Kemi Badenoch told Times Radio that the triple lock is Conservative policy but that reinstating it after Labour’s change would be “difficult”, according to The Independent.

What do supporters and critics say?

The case for the triple lock

Supporters say a promise is a promise. Millions of people have planned their retirement around it, and they paid in for a lifetime on the understanding that the State Pension would hold its value. The pension was allowed to wither for decades after the earnings link was broken in 1980, and the triple lock has only partly repaired that. Pensioners on the State Pension alone are hardly wealthy. And a government that finds money for asylum hotels, overseas aid and net zero schemes has no business starting its savings drive with people in their eighties.

The case against

Critics argue that the triple lock is a one-way ratchet that pushes the pension ever higher relative to earnings and leaves working-age taxpayers to foot the bill. The OBR projects spending rising to about 9% of GDP by the mid-2070s with the triple lock, compared with about 7% under a simple earnings link. With the national debt above £3 trillion, some on the right argue that any serious plan to cut the size of the state has to touch the biggest benefit. The pension crossing the personal allowance also exposes how far tax thresholds have been frozen.

Why does it matter?

The State Pension is the single largest item in the welfare budget, costing about £154bn this year according to the BBC. More than 12 million people depend on it. Any change to how it rises compounds year after year, which is why a formula tweak today can be worth thousands of pounds a year to a pensioner in the 2040s. Pensioners are also the group most likely to vote. Burnham’s change does not take effect until after the next general election, so voters will get to judge it first.

What happens next?

John Healey’s first Budget on 28 October 2026 confirmed the Pension Tax Allowance from April 2027 and left the plan to adjust the triple lock from 2030 in place; the OBR has built the adjusted triple lock into its forecast from 2030–31. The April 2027 rise will be confirmed in the government’s uprating statement. Replacing the triple lock from 2030 will need to survive a general election, which must be held by August 2029. The State Pension age review must report by March 2029, and its conclusions on 68 will decide whether today’s 50-somethings wait longer for their pension.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the triple lock?

The triple lock is the rule that raises the State Pension each April by the highest of average earnings growth, CPI inflation or 2.5%. It was introduced in 2010 and first applied in 2011.

How much is the State Pension in 2026?

As of the 2026–27 tax year, the full new State Pension is £241.30 a week (£12,547.60 a year) and the full basic State Pension is £184.90 a week.

Is Andy Burnham scrapping the triple lock?

He has said it will stay until April 2030. After that, the government says the pension will rise by the highest of CPI inflation, 2.5% or what is needed to maintain its value relative to average earnings. Independent analysts say that would leave future pensions lower than under the triple lock.

When does the State Pension age rise to 67?

The rise from 66 to 67 is being phased in between April 2026 and April 2028, depending on your date of birth.

Will the State Pension age rise to 68 sooner?

Under current law, 68 is phased in between 2044 and 2046. A government review due by March 2029 could recommend bringing it forward. Reports say the OBR’s projections assume 2037–39, but the Treasury says the law has not changed.

Does Reform UK support the triple lock?

Yes. Nigel Farage has said Reform UK will always maintain the triple lock.

Will pensioners pay tax on the State Pension?

The State Pension is taxable income. The expected 2027–28 full rate would exceed the £12,570 personal allowance. At the 28 October 2026 Budget the Chancellor confirmed a Pension Tax Allowance from April 2027, so pensioners whose total income is no more than the full new State Pension will not pay income tax.

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Sources

• DWP – Over 12 million pensioners to receive State Pension boost (April 2026)
• BBC News – Expected State Pension rise for April 2027 (September 2026)
• BBC News – Andy Burnham’s conference speech on the triple lock (29 September 2026)
• DWP – State Pension uprating analysis 2026
• Hansard – Pensions: Triple Lock, statement by Pat McFadden (13 October 2026)
• DWP – Triple lock reform factsheet
• ONS – Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026
• IFS – The new triple lock: much improved, not perfect, and not enough to fund universal social care
• IFS – State Pension age increase from 65 to 66 and income poverty among 65-year-olds
• Which? – Will the State Pension age rise to 68 sooner than planned?
• GOV.UK – Third State Pension age review
• Reform UK – Farage: Reform UK will always protect our pensioners and maintain the triple lock
• The Independent – Modelling of the triple lock changes
• The Independent – Hymans Robertson analysis of the adjusted triple lock
• Office for Budget Responsibility – Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026
• Pensions Act 2014 – legislation.gov.uk
• Pensions Act 2007 – legislation.gov.uk
• GOV.UK – Check your State Pension age
• GOV.UK – The new State Pension