Rayner Backs Khan for a Fourth Term. His City Hall Tax Is Up 85% Since 2016

Analysis | By Matt, Editor

In 2016-17, City Hall’s slice of a Band D council tax bill in the 32 London boroughs was £276. This year it is £510.51. On Tuesday, Angela Rayner said she is “absolutely 100% behind” Sadiq Khan if he wants a fourth term as Mayor of London. (City Hall, 2016; City Hall, 2026; The Standard)

The record tells a different story on tax, homes and fares, and most Londoners have already said they want someone else.

Ten years, three terms and an 85% bigger bill. Labour’s answer is more of the same.

The news, without the gloss

Lord Khan, a peer since August, has not decided whether to stand again in May 2028 and is expected to decide next year. (The Standard)

Asked if she wanted him to run, Ms Rayner said: “If he wants it, I’m absolutely 100% behind Sadiq. He’s been a tremendous Mayor for London, and you can see that whether it’s crime going down, the investment in all parts of London.” (The Standard)

Dawn Butler, backed by the GMB union, David Lammy, Rosena Allin-Khan and Steve Reed are named as possible Labour successors. We reported in August that David Lammy was eyeing a run for City Hall.

What they said then

Sadiq Khan, 2016 manifesto. “Londoners won’t pay a penny more for their travel in 2020 than they do today.” Within weeks of winning, he confirmed Travelcards and daily caps were not covered. (The Independent)

City Hall, 18 November 2016. A peak pay-as-you-go Tube fare within Zone 1 “will remain at £2.40” for four years. Since 1 March 2026 it has been £3.10. (City Hall; Mayoral Decision 3464)

Sadiq Khan, 2016. Building more homes would be his “single biggest priority” on entering City Hall, as The Standard recorded in August. (The Standard)

Sadiq Khan, 2022, at City Hall. A Tory peer sitting on the London Assembly was “proof, if it was ever needed, that we should abolish the House of Lords”. In August 2026 he accepted a peerage in Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation honours. (The Standard; see our report on Khan being sworn into the Lords)

Sadiq Khan, May 2026. “There are one or two dream jobs I would give up this job to do but let’s wait and see if they contact me.” (The Standard)

What they’re saying now

Angela Rayner, 27 October 2026. “Every time you speak to him, he is Mr London.” (The Standard)

Sir James Cleverly, Tory frontrunner, 2 September 2026. Khan has “given up on London” and “it feels like he’s lost the fire for the job.” (The Standard)

Laila Cunningham, Reform UK’s candidate, January 2026. “Sadiq Khan has acted like almost like a bystander, but he is the Police and Crime Commissioner. He sets the budget, he sets the targets, he sets the priorities.” (GB News)

Londoners, YouGov, 29 July to 5 August 2026. 56% said Khan should stand down and let a different Labour candidate run, against 24% who want a fourth term. Among his own 2024 voters, 31% want him to go. (YouGov)

The record in numbers

Measure	Then	Now
City Hall council tax, Band D, 32 boroughs	£276.00 (2016-17)	£510.51 (2026-27), up 85%
Peak Tube fare, Zone 1, pay as you go	£2.40 (2016)	£3.10 (March 2026), up 29%
Affordable home starts, 2021-26 programme	Original target 35,000	14,335 by March 2026, after the target was cut twice to 17,800-19,000
Londoners saying he handles housing badly		66% (YouGov, August 2026)
Homicides in London	109 (2024)	97 (2025), lowest since 2014
Knife-enabled offences, Met Police	Year to June 2025	13,748 in year to June 2026, down 12%

The housing line is the one that should embarrass Ms Rayner, whose department funds the programme. City Hall was given £4 billion for 2021-26 to start 35,000 affordable homes. The target was cut to 23,900-27,200, then to 17,800-19,000, and still missed. Starts reached 14,335, about 41% of the original goal. (London Assembly)

In the same poll, 55% said the city has become a worse place to live since Khan was first elected, and 57% said he has handled crime badly. (The Standard; GB News)

The fair points

Ms Rayner is right that some crime has fallen. The Met recorded 97 homicides in 2025, the lowest total since 2014, and the ONS says Met knife crime fell 12% in the year to June 2026. But London still accounted for 28% of all knife-enabled offences in England and Wales. (Metropolitan Police; ONS)

Most of this year’s £20.13 precept rise, £15, goes to the Met, and bus fares have been frozen seven times since 2016. City Hall blames Brexit, the pandemic and interest rates for the housing shortfall. A poll for Queen Mary University of London by Savanta in July put Labour on 33%, well ahead of the Tories and Reform on 18% each, so a fourth term would be winnable. (City Hall; Mayoral Decision 3464; The Standard)

None of that explains why the price of City Hall rose 85% while the homes it promised did not arrive. Reform’s candidate and the Tories are already fighting over that record, as we reported when Cunningham warned Cleverly could be another Sadiq Khan.

What it means for you

A Band D household in a London borough pays £234.51 a year more to City Hall than it did when Khan took over, before a single borough council adds its own share. A Zone 1 Tube commuter pays 70p more per peak journey than the figure Khan promised would hold for four years.

Verdict

This is opinion, built on the record above.

Angela Rayner calls Sadiq Khan “Mr London”. After a decade, Mr London has raised his council tax charge by 85%, missed a housing target cut twice, and taken a seat in a House he once wanted abolished.

A majority of Londoners have told pollsters it is time for someone else. Labour’s Communities Secretary has told them she wants him to carry on. The losers are London’s renters, commuters and council taxpayers.

Frequently asked questions

Is Sadiq Khan standing for a fourth term?

He has not decided. The Standard reports he is expected to decide next year whether to seek Labour’s nomination for the May 2028 mayoral election. Angela Rayner said on 27 October 2026 she would back him “if he wants it”.

Do Londoners want Sadiq Khan to stand again?

A YouGov poll of 1,141 London adults, taken from 29 July to 5 August 2026, found 56% think he should stand down and 24% think he should run again. Other polls suggest Labour would still be favourite to win.

How much has the Mayor’s council tax charge risen?

The City Hall precept for a Band D home in the 32 London boroughs rose from £276 in 2016-17 to £510.51 in 2026-27, an increase of about 85%. Most of it funds the Metropolitan Police.

Sources

• The Standard, 27 October 2026: Angela Rayner backs ‘Mr London’ Sadiq Khan for fourth term as Mayor
• The Standard, 15 September 2026: What does Sadiq Khan’s peerage mean for his future as London Mayor?
• The Standard, 20 August 2026: Most Londoners don’t want Mayor Sadiq Khan to seek fourth term, new poll shows
• YouGov, August 2026: London mayoral survey results, fieldwork 29 July to 5 August 2026
• GB News, August 2026: Sadiq Khan urged to stand down by Londoners as new poll reveals fury at crime
• The Standard, 2 September 2026: James Cleverly: ‘We can win big’ against Sadiq Khan
• GB News, January 2026: Sadiq Khan accused of being a ‘bystander’ by Laila Cunningham
• City Hall, 2026: The Mayor’s budget 2026-27
• City Hall, 2016: MD1611: 2016-17 Council Tax and Precept
• London Assembly, 8 July 2026: Affordable Housing Monitor 2026
• City Hall, 18 November 2016: Formal Mayoral Decision confirms TfL fares frozen until 2020
• City Hall, 29 January 2026: MD3464: March 2026 Transport for London fare changes
• The Independent, 2016: Sadiq Khan accused of breaking flagship election promise to freeze fares
• Metropolitan Police, 12 January 2026: Violence crackdown drives London’s homicide rate to record low
• Office for National Statistics, 22 October 2026: Crime in England and Wales: year ending June 2026